Climate change and Conflict in the Horn of Africa: The case of Somalia

Climate change is one of the most prominent worldwide challenges that gained priority on the Global Agenda over the last years. literature links climate change and conflict, especially within the African context, as climate change – be it in the form of drought, desertification, floods or a sharp rise in temperatures - and the resulting catastrophic effects that threaten the lives of individuals and groups in Africa constitute a favourable environment and a catalyst that helped create many conflicts and exacerbate existing conflicts.
The case of Somalia is considered one of the cases worthy of study in this regard, as it is facing an unprecedented wave of drought, the worst in the history of Somalia, as Somalia is living in the midst of the fifth failed rainy season in a row, which resulted in catastrophic effects. Among the 16 million citizens who represent the total population of Somalia, about 8 million citizens are facing a real crisis of food insecurity, which has reached famine in some regions, and at the same time, the third quarter of 2022 recorded the highest levels of conflict-related deaths in five years. Under these circumstances, al-Shabaab terrorist Movement escalated its attacks in the centre and south, which are the areas most affected by the drought. Moreover, 3 million citizens were internally displaced, while about 20,000 Somali citizens crossed the border as refugees in Kenya, in what is known as "climate refugees".
In this context, this paper seeks to study and analyse the phenomenon of climate change and conflict, in order to answer the question: To what extent has climate change affected the conflict in Somalia? To achieve this goal, the study adopts a case study approach and is divided into four main sections that begin with a theoretical background on the relationship between climate change and conflict, then it deals with the phenomenon of climate change in the Horn of Africa, next it focuses on the impact of climate change on the conflict in Somalia, and finally presents Response policies and opportunities to contain the conflict in Somalia.