The impact of the devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar on the current account in the Egyptian balance of payments and its reflection on the size of the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank during the period (1998-2022)

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to analyze the impact of the devaluation of the Egyptian pound versus the United States dollar on certain components of the current account of the Egyptian balance of payments and its reflection on the size of the foreign reserve of the Central Bank of Egypt during the period from 1997–1998 to 2021–2022.
The descriptive and analytical approach was mainly used to describe and analyze the relationship between the study variables, namely, the value of the Egyptian pound to the dollar as an independent variable, the current balance of payments as an intermediate variable, and the size of the foreign  reserve as a dependent variable to find out whether the devaluation of the Egyptian pound succeeded in increasing exports, reducing imports, increasing remittances of workers abroad, and increasing tourism revenues, and whether the devaluation of the pound to the United States dollar succeeded in increasing foreign reserves , thus reducing the deficit in the balance of trade and hence the balance of the current account and hence the impact on the volume of foreign reserves.
The statistical results have shown that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the exchange rate and the foreign reserve, as well as a statistically significant positive relationship between both the surplus / deficit of trade balance and the foreign  reserve, a statistically significant positive relationship between the workers' remittances and the foreign reserve, a statistically significant positive relationship between both the tourism revenues and the foreign reserve, a statistically significant negative relationship between the exchange rate and the deficit/surplus trade balance, a statistically significant positive relationship between the exchange rate and the workers' remittances, and a statistically significant positive relationship between the exchange rate and the tourism revenues.

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